Nonfarm employment in the state bounced back during May and June, with over-the-month gains of 62,900 and 73,800, respectively. A Changing Nation: Population Projections. The world's . The data will be embargoed (June 28, 2022). The 30-year forecasts call for job, income, and sales growth in Arizona to gradually decelerate, reflecting slowing population gains due to the aging of the baby boom generation. The Phoenix MSA has had a higher annual growth rate than the nation since 1980. Ten years from now, the U.S. population will have almost 350 million people. We have provided a few examples below that you can copy and paste to your site: Your image export is now complete. Whether or not the state makes significant progress in closing the income gap with the U.S. will depend in large part on investments in education, as well as other drivers of innovation. That translated into 2.6% of Arizonas total personal income last year. Fiscal policy includes the actions to date, but no new major legislation was assumed in the July forecast. The sixth-fastest-growing area was Fort Myers, Florida (6.8%), followed by Casa Grande, Arizona (6.2%); Maricopa, Arizona (6.1%); North Port, Florida (5.5%); Spring Hill, Tennessee (5.4%); Goodyear, Arizona (5.4%); and Port St. Lucie, Florida (5.2%). The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate bounced up to 10.0%, but remained below the national rate at 11.1%. The annual average 2018non-farm employment for the Phoenix MSA was estimated at 2.1million, which makes up 74% of the states employment. Access demographic, economic and population data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Even so, high unemployment keeps inflation low. These projections do not include any assumptions about the possible long-run impacts of the pandemic on the U.S. economy. This data is critical for government programs, policies, and decision-making. It is safe to say, however, that the more prevalent the virus becomes and the longer it takes to develop therapeutics and a vaccine, the larger and more extensive the long-term impact will be. The pessimistic scenario assumes a somewhat slower, more prolonged recovery. Explore census data with visualizations and view tutorials. The Arizona long-run projections rely on the IHS Markit 30-year forecast generated in March 2020. Innovation is the main driver and it depends in part on investments in human capital, primarily education. Arizonas job-population ratio rises during the next 30 years, reaching 44.1% by 2050. An official website of the United States government. Access demographic, economic and population data from the U.S. Census Bureau. This projections series uses the official estimates of the resident population on July 1, 2016 as the base for projecting the US population from 2017 to 2060. The nations housing stock grew by about 1.3 million units between July 2020 and July 2021, reaching a total of 142.2 million. Note: The inputs remained the same for all migration scenarios. Arizona, Texas, Florida and Idaho all had several places among the 15 fastest-growing cities or towns: San Antonio, Texas, topped the list of the largest numeric gainers with an increase of 13,626 people between 2020 and 2021. Under those assumptions, the state continues to recover gradually, with job, income, population, and sales growth continuing. Employment recovers faster under the optimistic scenario, with jobs reaching their prior peak by the first quarter of 2021. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. Consumer spending remains the epicenter of the downturn, with a drop of 5.8% this year, but business fixed investment, residential investment, and net exports decline significantly as well. Overall, that implies that Arizona has replaced 46.4% of the jobs lost from February to April. The forecast calls for employment to return to its first quarter 2020 level by the second quarter of 2021. The July 2020 forecast from IHS Markit underpins the state projections. Historical and Projected Gains to Life Expectancy, 1960-2060. HomeBusiness NewsArizonas 30-year outlook: Short-run trouble, long-run growth. Employment Compare Western States and U.S. Employment Compare Select Western Metros. A component methodology accounts for each aspect of demographic change (fertility, mortality, and migration). Arizonas job-population ratio rises during the next 30 years, reaching 44.1% by 2050. The recovery begins in the third quarter, but even so, real GDP falls by 6.1% in 2020. "We are excited to reach this milestone of delivering. Our surveys provide periodic and comprehensive statistics about the nation. The top five counties with the largest numeric gains in housing units between July 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021, were Harris County, Texas (34,132); Maricopa County, Arizona (29,935); Travis County, Texas (25,693); Los Angeles County, California (22,925); and Fort Bend County, Texas (14,230). The purpose of this document is to present information on how the results of the 2009 National Population Projections vary according to different net international migration assumptions and compare to the 2008 National Population Projections in terms of population size and growth, age structure, and race and Hispanic origin distribution. In total, the state collected over $6.5billion in sales tax revenue during FY 2019, a 6.7% increase from FY 2018. endstream endobj startxref The complete list is available at. To sign up for updates please enter your email address. Overall, Arizona is on pace to recover to pre-pandemic levels of economic activity in 2021, probably well before the nation as a whole. Need more information about the outlook for Arizona, Phoenix, and Tucson? Note: Text in bold was updated at 10am on May 26, 2022. Please do not hesitate to contact me. This report examines historical and projected life expectancy in the United States and explores differences between the native and foreign-born populations. As Exhibit 1 shows, state job gains rebound strongly from the COVID-19 recession, then decelerate to just over 1.0% per year by 2050. The risks to the short-run outlook primarily revolve around the progress of the outbreak. U.S. Census Bureau - Population Estimates. The best of the best: the portal for top lists & rankings: Strategy and business building for the data-driven economy: Industry-specific and extensively researched technical data (partially from exclusive partnerships). All previously published estimates (e.g., old vintages) are superseded and archived on theFTP2 site. Show publisher information "While only 4% of all cities and towns had a population of 50,000 or more in 2021, collectively they contained 129.3 million people nearly 39% of the U.S. population," said Crystal Delb, a statistician in the Population Division at the Census Bureau. The baseline forecast assumes that the current surge in the outbreak is contained quickly and that there is no major resurgence in the fall/winter. On the other hand, of the 19,494 incorporated places in the United States, more than 75% had fewer than 5,000 people.. Measuring America's People, Places, and Economy. Explore census data with visualizations and view tutorials. The July U.S. forecast calls for real GDP to fall 35.5% (annualized rate) in the second quarter. Average Hourly Earnings Compare Western States and U.S. Average Hourly Earnings Compare Select Western Metros. 2017 National Population Projections Datasets. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates near zero through 2026. The current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, according to a new United Nations report being launched today. These tables feature 2017 National Population Projections by age, sex, race, Hispanic origin, and nativity. A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States. The population of Arizona in 2022 was 7,359,197, a 1.3% increase from 2021. This infographic provides an overview of the Phoenix MSA including demographics, employment, and transportation. The pessimistic scenario assumes a somewhat slower, more prolonged recovery. Across Arizonas metropolitan areas, Sierra Vista-Douglas and Prescott have fared the best, with nonfarm jobs down just 1.4% and 1.5% from February to June. Consumer spending remains the epicenter of the downturn, with a drop of 5.8% this year, but business fixed investment, residential investment, and net exports decline significantly as well. These data result from a survey of establishments and exclude agricultural workers and the self employed. The state outlook also depends on the performance of the U.S. and global economies. The current metro area population of Phoenix in 2023 is 4,717,000, a 1.4% increase from 2022. Only government spending, excluding transfers, rises (slightly) in 2020. The remaining three large cities experienced relatively small population growth. Grandparents Still Work to Support Grandchildren. A locked padlock To sign up for updates please enter your email address. Overall, Arizona is on pace to recover to pre-pandemic levels of economic activity in 2021, probably well before the nation as a whole. Not all climate forecasts are so dire, but experts say Arizonans need to prepare for. The MSA continues to show stronger annual growth than the state as well, and is expected to continue this growth rate through at least 2050. Projected total population, components of population change, population by sex and age group, population by sex and single year of age for age group 19 and younger, population by race and Hispanic origin: Arizona Arizona Medium Series Arizona Low Series Arizona High Series Apache County Apache Medium Series Apache Low Series Apache High Series The statistics released today cover all local functioning governmental units, including incorporated places (like cities and towns), minor civil divisions (such as townships), and consolidated cities (government units for which the functions of an incorporated place and its parent county have merged). "Projected State Population of The United States in 2040, by State (in Millions). The U.S. Census Bureau projected the U.S. population will be 334,233,854 on January 1, 2023. Browse our topics and subtopics to find information and data. Land ownership statistics for the MAG MPO come from the Arizona State Land Department. The household survey, which generates the state unemployment rate estimate, includes agricultural workers and the self-employed, as well as other groups excluded from the establishment survey. They are typically based on an estimated population consistent with the most recent decennial census and are produced using the cohort-component method. Growth is positive in 2021 and 2022 at 3.7% and 3.6%, respectively. Demographic Turning Points for the United States. The population of Arizona in 2021 was 7,264,877, a 1.18% increase from 2020. Net Taxable Sales 2017-2018 Per capita Personal Income 2018 Consumer price index June 2019 Unemployment Insurance PHOENIX, AZ The 2020 Census released its final results, showing Maricopa County's drastic 15.8 percent population growth from 2010 to 2020. The U.S. unemployment rate hits 8.6% on average in 2020 before falling to 6.3% in 2021 and 5.3% in 2022. The U.S. unemployment rate hits 8.6% on average in 2020 before falling to 6.3% in 2021 and 5.3% in 2022. University of Virginia (Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service). In, University of Virginia (Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service). The Climate Explorer provides interactive graphs and maps showing past and projected climate conditions for counties and county-equivalents across the United States. A locked padlock Source: Arizona State Land Department, March 2018, Copyright 2023 by Maricopa Association of Governments, Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement Projects, Regional Recycling Information and Resources, Planners & Economic Development Partnership Exchange, COVID-19 Effects on Arizona Tourism and Trade with North America, Title VI Program and Environmental Justice, Community Emergency Notification System (CENS), Domestic Violence Protocol Evaluation Project, Human Services and Community Initiatives Committee, Maricopa Regional Continuum of Care Board, Elderly and Persons with Disabilities Transportation Committee, Intelligent Transportation Systems Committee, Maricopa Regional Continuum of Care Committee, Public Safety Answering Point Managers Group, Standard Specifications & Details Committee. ", University of Virginia (Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service), Projected state population of the United States in 2040, by state (in millions) Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/312714/us-projected-state-population-by-state/ (last visited May 01, 2023), Projected state population of the United States in 2040, by state (in millions) [Graph], University of Virginia (Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service), February 11, 2019. Only government spending, excluding transfers, rises (slightly) in 2020. Phoenix's metro area was. Projected state population of the United States in 2040, by state (in millions) [Graph]. ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. Need more information about the outlook for Arizona, Phoenix, and Tucson? All rights reserved. The baseline forecast assumes that the current surge in the spread of the coronavirus is contained quickly and that there is no major resurgence in the fall. 5495 0 obj <> endobj statistic alerts) please log in with your personal account. Rounding out the list were three suburbs of Boise, Idaho: Meridian (5.2%), Caldwell (5.2%) and Nampa (5.0%). Lock During the next 30 years, Arizona population is forecast to rise by 2.81 million, hitting 10.1 million by 2050. Even so, high unemployment keeps inflation low. The current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, according to a new United Nations report being launched today. Values have been rounded. Our surveys provide periodic and comprehensive statistics about the nation. Assessing the Year of Naturalization Data in the ACS. Innovation is the main driver and it depends in part on investments in human capital, primarily education. Similarly, the state needs to invest in public infrastructure, like highways and roads, water and sewer, telecommunications, airports, and border ports of entry, to ensure that the state is competitive around the U.S. and globally. Contact Dr. George Hammond at ghammond@arizona.edu. Profit from the additional features of your individual account. Backlinks from other websites and blogs are the lifeblood of our site and are our primary source of new traffic. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate bounced up to 10.0%, but remained below the national rate at 11.1%. Business Solutions including all features. Accessed May 01, 2023. https://www.statista.com/statistics/312714/us-projected-state-population-by-state/. The annual growth rate of 1.0% from 2020 to 2021 increased slightly from 0.8% in the 2019 to 2020 period. Additional projections files are available via the Census Bureau application programming interface (API). The 2017 population projections for the United States are the third set of projections based on the 2010 Census. Exhibit 2 shows the three scenarios for Arizona nonfarm jobs. U.S. - projected state population by state 2040 Published by Erin Duffin , Sep 30, 2022 This statistic represents projected population of the United States in 2040, broken down by state. The Arizona long-run projections rely on the IHS Markit 30-year forecast generated in March 2020. Census Bureau Projects U.S. and World Populations on New Year's Day December 29, 2022 The U.S. Census Bureau projected the U.S. population will be 334,233,854 on January 1, 2023. Access demographic, economic and population data from the U.S. Census Bureau. February 11, 2019. That would put the states income gap back to levels last seen in the 2000s. Medium projection; Rank Country Region . Built to support the U.S. Browse our collection of stories and more. With roughly 83 million people being added to the worlds population every year, the upward trend in population size is expected to continue, even assuming that fertility levels will continue to decline. You can only download this statistic as a Premium user. A lock ( The series uses the cohort-component method and historical trends in births, deaths, and international migration to project the future size and composition of the national population. Keep in mind that the nonfarm payroll employment data reflect the number of jobs on payrolls of establishments during the pay period including the 12th of the month. This data is critical for government programs, policies, and decision-making. Copyright 2023 AZ Big Media | All Rights Reserved | Site by Blufish, Ranking Arizona: Top 10 cybersecurity companies for 2023, Heres how the Joy Bus helps home-bound cancer patients, How Small Business Boot Camp boosts Arizonas small business community. The projections by municipal planning area (MPA) and regional analysis zone (RAZ) were prepared to be consistent with the July 1, 2018 population estimates and have been prepared for July 1st of the base year 2018 and projected for July 1st of 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2055. Georgetown was followed by Leander, Texas (10.1%); Queen Creek Town, Arizona (8.9%); Buckeye, Arizona (8.6%); and New Braunfels, Texas (8.3%). Official websites use .gov The state also adds 1.58 million jobs and $343 billion in real personal income. Lock Yuma, Lake Havasu-Kingman, and Flagstaff were hit harder, with jobs down 7.1%, 9.0%, and 17.2%, respectively. Originally Posted by Project525Project252 That may be true, but it's not just the big cities in the West that are growing, there's also the small towns up in the mountains which are attracting young adults to the area. 0 On June 30, 2022, the Census Bureau will release estimates of the July 1, 2021, population by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for the nation, states and counties, and population by age and sex for the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and Puerto Rico municipios. Its July 1, 2021, population of 8.5 million was more than twice that of the next largest city, Los Angeles, with a population of nearly 4 million. Indeed, by 2050, net migration is forecast to be responsible for all state population increase. This poster examines projected life expectancy in the United States and explores differences between the native and foreign-born populations. At this point, possible long-term impacts are speculative at best. There is still a huge amount of uncertainty about the future of the outbreak and the economic impacts associated with it. Our projection is for a population of between 445 and 462 million residents depending on the assumptions used. The series uses the cohort-component method and historical trends in births, deaths, and international migration to project the future size and composition of the national population. Both births and deaths are expected to rise during the forecast, but deaths increase at a faster pace. The projections indicated that the numeric population growth in Arizona throughout the projection period (1997 to 2050) would be higher than in the period prior to the mid-1990s but that the population change would not rise much over the projection period, as seen in Table 3. Following San Antonio were Phoenix, Arizona (13,224); Fort Worth, Texas (12,916); Port St. Lucie, Florida (10,771); North Las Vegas, Nevada (9,917); Cape Coral, Florida (8,220); Buckeye, Arizona (8,001); Frisco, Texas (7,933); New Braunfels, Texas (7,538); Georgetown, Texas (7,193); Meridian, Idaho (6,234); Leander, Texas (6,159); Fort Meyers, Florida (5,891); Denton, Texas (5,844); and McKinney, Texas (5,568). These datasets feature 2017 National Population Projections for the main series and alternative migration scenarios. Despite decreasing in population, New York remained the nations largest city. During the next 30 years, Arizona population is forecast to rise by 2.81 million, hitting 10.1 million by 2050. You need at least a Starter Account to use this feature. Utah experienced the nations fastest growth in housing units, with an increase of 2.7 percent between July 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021, followed by Idaho (2.5%) and Texas (2.0%). Following Los Angeles in population size were Chicago, Illinois (2.7 million); Houston, Texas (2.3 million); Phoenix, Arizona (1.6 million); Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (1.6 million); San Antonio, Texas (1.5 million); San Diego, California (1.4 million); Dallas, Texas (1.3 million); and San Jose, California (1.0 million). About 1.3 million grandparents in the labor force are responsible for most of the basic care of coresident grandchildren under age 18. The forecast assumes that the executive order affecting activity at bars, indoor gyms, indoor movie theaters, and other activities, has expired. Employment begins to recover in the third quarter of 2020 (just as in the baseline), but does not reach the previous peak until the third quarter of 2022. Explore census data with visualizations and view tutorials. Statista. Please create an employee account to be able to mark statistics as favorites. Changes in aging trends and life expectancy of selected countries. Beneath the global level, there are of course big differences between different world regions and countries. Employment recovers faster under the optimistic scenario, with jobs reaching their prior peak by the first quarter of 2021. Public Information Office A lock ( United Nations population projections are also included through the year 2035. The average weekly wage in the Phoenix MSA for 2018was $1,038and the average annual wage in the Phoenix MSA was $53,966, putting the MSA in the top 20% of large regions nationally. Press Release Census Bureau Releases New Population Projections for 30 Countries and Areas December 21, 2021 The vintage 2016 sub-county projections only covered 2016-2050 so a new procedure was needed to extend the current series to 2055. Population projections are estimates of the population for future dates. of the 50 most populous countries in 2050. That was better than the 33.9% replacement rate for the nation through June. The recovery begins in the third quarter, but even so, real GDP falls by 6.1% in 2020. Census Bureau Projects U.S. and World Populations on New Years Day. Official websites use .gov Copyright 2022 The Arizona Board of Regents on behalf of The University of Arizona. Census Bureau Releases New Population Projections for 30 Countries and Areas. Chart. The state also adds 1.58 million jobs and $343 billion in real personal income during the forecast period. These data result from a survey of establishments and exclude agricultural workers and the self-employed. Failure to invest in human capital accumulation will make it very difficult for the state to eliminate the income gap with the nation. This projections series uses the official estimates of the resident population on July 1, 2016 as the base for projecting the US population from 2017 to 2060. Per Capita Personal Income Compare Western States and U.S. Keep in mind that the projections may be subject to large revisions in the future as new information impacts the outlook. In. On an annual average basis, state job growth is forecast to hit 4.3% in 2021 (the rebound year) and then gradually decelerate to 1.8% by 2026. Thanks in part to a massive infusion of funds through the CARES Act, Arizona personal income is forecast to rise by 3.1% this year. Thanks in part to a massive infusion of funds through the CARES Act, Arizona personal income is forecast to rise by 3.1% this year. ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. The source calculated the exponential growth rate for each of the 50 states and D.C. using population totals from 2010 and 2017. This means that net migration will be an increasingly important source of population gains. The household survey, which generates the state unemployment rate estimate, includes agricultural workers and the self-employed, as well as other groups excluded from the establishment survey. The 2017 population projections series updates the prior series released in 2014, which was the first to incorporate separate assumptions about the fertility of native and foreign-born women living in the United States, since the latter tend to have higher fertility rates. Arizona Posted Another Solid Month of Job Gains in Arizonas Job Growth Revised Up in 2021 and 2022. The forecast assumes that the current executive order affecting activity at bars, indoor gyms, indoor movie theaters, and other activities, expires in August. Secure .gov websites use HTTPS [Online]. Measuring America's People, Places, and Economy. Browse our collection of stories and more. Both births and deaths are expected to rise during the forecast, but deaths increase at a faster pace. At this point, possible long-term impacts are speculative at best. August, 2020 Third Quarter 2020 Forecast Update. pio@census.gov. ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. China and India will still be bigger, but India with 1.5 billion people will now be larger than China, with 1.46. While Arizona makes progress during the forecast, the rate remains well below the nation, reflecting the states demographic mix. Fastest-Growing Cities Are Still in the West and South, Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), population estimates for cities and towns, Percentage Change of Housing Units by State Map, release estimates of the July 1, 2021, population, www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/about/schedule.html, www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html. As Exhibit 1 shows, state job gains rebound strongly from the COVID-19 recession, then decelerate to just over 1.0% per year by 2050. The population of Arizona in 2019 was 7,291,843, a 1.78% increase from 2018. From March through August 8, unemployment insurance alone has injected $8.7 billion into the Arizona economy. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Office of Intergovernmental Support and Coordination for Sustainable Development, Division for Sustainable Development Goals, Division for Public Institutions and Digital Government, Financing for Sustainable Development Office, Division for Inclusive Social Development, Capacity Development Programme Management Office. Download Historical Data Save as Image to incorporate the statistic into your presentation at any time. Currently, you are using a shared account. Explore census data with visualizations and view tutorials. The long-run outlook for the state is strong. Under those assumptions, the state continues to recover gradually, with job, income, population, and sales growth continuing. Climate Resilience Toolkit, the tool helps people explore projected future climate conditions that may put people, property, and other assets at risk. Fiscal policy includes the actions to date, but no new major legislation was assumed in the July forecast. It focuses on 2030 as a demographic turning point for the United States, but explores broader changes in the age, race, and ethnic composition of the population from 2020 to 2060. Methodology To find the 25 popular cities in the world that would be most impacted by climate change in the next 20-30 years, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed a study, 2050 Climate Change City Index . Exhibit 2 shows the three scenarios for Arizona nonfarm jobs. The purpose of this document is to present information on how the results of the 2009 National Population Projections vary according to different net international migration assumptions and compare to the 2008 National Population Projections in terms of population size and growth, age structure, and race and Hispanic origin distribution. The ideal entry-level account for individual users. 2017 National Population Projections Tables: Main Series. Secure .gov websites use HTTPS Browse our topics and subtopics to find information and data. The Phoenix MSA is home to 67% of the states population and has been one of the top growth areas in the nation. This report highlights projected demographic changes of slower growth, considerable aging, and increased racial and ethnic diversity. This report discusses projected changes in the U.S. population and summarizes results from the U.S. Census Bureau's 2017 National Population Projections. By George W. Hammond, Ph.D., Director and Research Professor, EBRC. The 2017 series extends this work and for the first time accounts for the generally lower mortality rates and longer life expectancy of the foreign-born. MAG produces population and employment projections by municipal planning area (MPA), incorporated jurisdiction, and regional analysis zone (RAZ). Some of the files may require a plug-in or additional software to view. Personal Income Compare Western States and U.S. Unemployment Rate, SA Compare Western States and U.S. Register Now for the 2023 Eller Breakfast with the Arizona Personal Income Growth Ended 2022 on a High Maricopa County Leads the Nation in Population Growth. Keep in mind that the nonfarm payroll employment data reflect the number of jobs on payrolls of establishments during the pay period including the 12th of the month.